The global advertising market bends but does not break in the face of the economy. In its new report, Magna (IPG Mediabrands) forecasts that the sector will grow to 4.6% in 2023 – from 6.6% last year – and has only slightly revised its previous downwards forecast dating back to the end of the year, which then stood at 4.8%. Last week, GroupM (WPP) maintained exactly the same forecast -, than that established several months ago -, over the current financial year, at 5.9%.
“Given the macroeconomic indicators, we expected the global advertising market to be less resilient. It’s a good surprise, notes Vincent Létang who oversees global forecasting at Magna Intelligence covering 70 countries. China’s economic rebound since the end of the “zero Covid” policy is a strong contributor to this. Advertising spending is up 6% over one year in the first quarter and this will accelerate throughout the year. »
This will compensate for more contrasting situations in Europe (4.2% growth forecast for 2023, including 2.8% in France) and in North America (2.5%, or 4.2% if we do not does not take into account political adver which drop sharply in years without an election).
The weight of digital
In the first quarter, global advertising market growth was sluggish at 1%, according to Magna. “But this will accelerate, the base effects are unfavorable in the first months of the year because the start of the 2022 financial year was very solid, the market having maintained the speed of the year 2021 which was historic. , dissects Vincent Létang. The global advertising market is currently driven by rising spending by the automotive industry, the travel industry and m distribution, which are the three largest advertisers in more than half of the countries. »
In detail, digital will climb by 8.5% in the 2023 financial year, against growth of 8.9% in 2022, and will represent 69% of global advertising revenue, at 577 billion dollars. A level which had been established at 64% during the previous financial year. Video, “social”, “retail media” : the digital advertising market is particularly driven by the very good shape of these formats.
The “raise” of outdoor advertising
Conversely, the historical media will see their advertising revenues decline by 3.1% during the current financial year, after growth of 2.5% in 2022, according to Magna. Television is the medium with the strongest decline, at -5%, despite the boom in segmented advertising (CTV) and the Avod in certain territories.
“The food, finance and “tech” sectors, which are big television advertisers, have revised their advertising expenditure downwards, explains Vincent Létang. At the same time, the decline in audiences continues. And the sharp rise in the price of spots in recent years, which compensated for this, is slowing down. »
The written press (daily, magazine) will drop by 4% over one year on a global scale, while radio resists (-0.5%). Conversely, outdoor advertising – which had suffered greatly from the health crisis – will continue its “upturn” with growth of 6.1% expected in 2023.