The unwritten rules of a presidential election change as quickly as a five-year term. Since 2017 and Emmanuel Macron’s lightning victory, the shared idea was “that a presidential election is a sprint”, says another Macronist heavyweight, that you have to leave late and surprise to board. Anne Hidalgo, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Zemmour to speak only of them followed the precept in 2022, with the result that we know.
A year later, fashion has reversed. Edward Philip , Laurent Wauquiez , Bernard Cazeneuve , Francois Ruffin all come in one way or another to set foot on the starting line for 2027. Four years from the next election, it’s early. But how else can it be when it comes to rebuilding parties from scratch, finding money, brainstorming ideas in a devastated ideological field and capturing the ears of voters further and further afield the information?
Look for new, systematically
To tell the truth, the acceleration was not self-evident. Edouard Philippe and Laurent Wauquiez seemed so far anxious to remain discreet until the middle of the quinquennium to begin to reveal themselves only after the Olympic Games of 2024. Las. To say nothing is to hide, seemed to say the debate on pensions. “To put oneself in reserve does not exist”, slice Jean-François Copé, “the French cannot understand it”.
THE Macron’s second five-year term started on paths that were too fragile not to try to take advantage of them without waiting. As for the spirit of competition, it does the rest: do not let an opponent escape alone for too long. Basic rule they have in mind.
But can we leave early without getting caught up in the political whirlwind? Interested parties are cautious. They are looking for the crest line. Small signals invite them to do so. The “One” of Edouard Philippe, last week, offered “L’Express” its best scores since the beginning of the year. In the barometer Ifop for “Paris Match” , the personalities outside the current political game are those who are progressing the most. In particular the anti-Mélenchon left: François Hollande wins two points, Fabien Roussel four, François Ruffin six.
What to deduce? That the French are always looking for something new, and that politics damages, quickly. The novelty promised by Emmanuel Macron in 2017 is already ancient history. The wind of freshness that seemed to carry Nupes a year ago has dissipated. Addressing the French without dissipating the mystery, that is the challenge.