Budget: When the fear of autumn freezes the political game

It’s a seasonal thing. There is always the hunter of economies and the ministers who tremble before him. You have to choose, you have to cut. The preparation of a budget is traditionally done under political tension. But this time, there is an additional dimension yet. Fear has won over the government teams – it “will be a horribilis autumn”, prognosticates an adviser – and this fear weighs heavily in the political game.

Since the psychodrama of 49.3 on pensions, and a motion of censure rejected by only nine votes, the next budget session is viewed with dread. Of course, there will be 49.3s, between ten and fifteen, like last year. Of course there will be motions of censure, but this time, what will prevent one of them from being adopted? LR now plans to be at the origin. There is a “risk of accidents in the fall”, says Gérard Larcher to AFP: “if the budget is not reasoned, there will be a problem of the country’s financial credibility”.

A budget is always difficult, this time it is done with a gun to the head. A minister has another image, just as deadly: “we could fall at any time, we live with this sword of Damocles above our heads”. Fear paralyzes, it is well known, and sometimes even well upstream.

The Mayor at the helm

What is the point of appointing a new Prime Minister if he is to fall in six months, thus question those who, around Emmanuel Macron, advise him to keep Elisabeth Borne? The president wanted to reshuffle, here he is embarred in his gesture. Except finding a replacement that would guarantee a vote without 49.3. But LR just decided to dig an “autonomous” furrow. Far, at this stage at least, from the “moment of national unity” hoped for by Richard Ferrand (Le Figaro).

How does this brake act on the Prime Minister? It urges caution, of course. She must spare LR, she must spare the left: she is the first traumatized of 49.3. In terms of expenses, the executive couple had accustomed us to sharing roles. The president spends, the host of Matignon watches over the grain. Sarkozy-Fillon, Macron-Philippe were of this share. This time, nothing like it. Elisabeth Borne leaves Bruno Le Maire in the front line on public spending, almost alone to hold the helm.

The circle could be closed like this. The fear of the next budget leads to the government status quo which itself leads to budgetary prudence. She gives the key to LR, while his elected officials have continued to show their inconsistency, firm in speech, spendthrift in fact. Fear, that bad counsellor.