from 2009 to 2019, what the polls said one year before the election
A year before the last European elections, in 2019, the Macronist majority dominated the landscape. Mikhail Palinchak/misu – stock.adobe.com ANALYSIS – The difference between the initial photograph and the final…
from 2009 to 2019, what the polls said one year before the election
A year before the last European elections, in 2019, the Macronist majority dominated the landscape. Mikhail Palinchak/misu – stock.adobe.com
ANALYSIS – The difference between the initial photograph and the final result has always been spectacular.
Last week Ifop carried out a first survey of voting intentions for the European elections which will take place in France on June 9, 2024. Published in the JDDthis survey granted, in the hypothesis of separate lists on the left, 25% to the national rally19% to the presidential majority, 10% to each of the three main lists resulting from the Nudes (LFI, EELV and PS), 8% at LR, 6% at Reconquest and 5% at PC. In the event of a single list from the left, the RN and the Nupes would be tied (26%) ahead of the Macronist list (22%), that of LR (11%) and that of Reconquest (6%).
What meaning should be given to a survey carried out one year before the election ? It is often repeated: such a measurement is only a photograph at a precise moment, in no way predicting the evolution of the political context and the dynamics of the campaign. The previous polls are also an invitation to political forces not to extrapolate the data of such a survey. Let’s take a look at the three…
