Elisabeth Borne reveals the government’s paths for ecological transition

Finally. While the ecological transition seemed relegated to the background of the concerns of a government entangled in pension reform Elisabeth Borne delivered for the first time her long-awaited overview of the major measures that should lead France to carbon neutrality by 2050 – with a first milestone in 2030.

The Prime Minister reserved this first communication for the National Council for Energy Transition (CNTE), a body which she chaired on Monday afternoon, and whose members come from civil society (environmental NGOs, trade unions, representatives of employers’ organisations, etc., local authorities or Parliament.

More or less detailed concrete levers

Extensive work has been carried out for months by the General Secretariat for Ecological Planning (SGPE), created in July 2022 under the authority of Elisabeth Borne and chaired by a 39-year-old mining engineer close to Emmanuel Macron. , Antoine Pellion. “This is a very collective project, each ministry has made its contribution, as well as local authorities and industrial sectors: we have opened the boxes and put the measures in coherence”, we explain to Matignon. .

The result is a long list of more or less detailed concrete “levers”, likely to lead to a reduction of “domestic” greenhouse gases in France to 270 million tonnes of CO equivalent.2 in 2030 (excluding carbon sinks), i.e. 138 million tonnes less than in 2022 (year when they reached 408 million tonnes). Be one noticeable acceleration of the rate of decline : France must cross, in eight years, the same march as during the past thirty years.

“This is not a prescription from the State towards the actors concerned. What we are saying is that if we implement all of these levers, we will get there. We are opening the discussion today to refine the work and come up with an action plan at the end of June, ”we also insist.

A certain number of actions are not solely the responsibility of the State. According to Matignon, more than half of the measures envisaged are in the hands of companies, a quarter depend on local authorities and a quarter on households. All sectors are concerned, starting with the largest contributors: transport (32% of the total in 2022), agriculture (20%), industry (18%), the buildings (16%) and energy (12%).

Overall consistency

The distribution of the reductions envisaged is however not proportional: according to the trajectories imagined by Matignon, the bulk of the effort would indeed be provided by transport (27% of the 138 million tonnes to be eliminated), thanks to electric vehicles and the carpooling, for example. Only 9% would come from agriculture, where the transition is more complex to implement. Building and industry would respectively represent 25% and 20% of the effort.

The sectoral targets envisaged at this stage may still evolve, depending on the discussions that will be held over the coming month. About half of the levers are already committed or in the process of being deployed, via the finance law for 2023, France Relance and France 2030, we underline at Matignon.

For example, the transfer to the electric car has been initiated via European regulations (which will prohibit the sale of new thermal vehicles after 2035) but additional means have yet to be deployed in the installation of charging stations.

Matignon claims to have checked the overall consistency of its plan, in terms of biom or electricity resources needed, for example. On this last point, subject to debate, the services of the Prime Minister recognize that “it will be complicated”, but promise that “it will come full circle”.

There remains the thorny question of the cost of this ecological transition, and its financing. “There is no ociated financing plan on the table today. Because everything will depend on the levers that we activate ”, justifies Matignon. Chance of the calendar – or not – the economist Jean Pisani-Ferry also presented this Monday the very complete report that the Prime Minister had commissioned from him, on the economic impact of the transition: based on the same trajectories as Matignon, it quantifies the additional investment required at approximately 66 billion euros per year – for which it will therefore be necessary to find financing, public and private.

The government therefore still has work to do before it can really put forward a realistic action plan. Elisabeth Borne has planned to receive the ministers concerned (energy, transport, agriculture, building, industry) between the end of May and mid-June, in order to develop France’s new national low-carbon strategy (SNCB), as well as the multi-annual program de l’énergie (PPE) and the national biodiversity strategy which will be presented at the end of June.

Emmanuel Macron must bring together a new Ecological Planning Council at the beginning of July around the ministers, before the announcement of the major arbitrations finally retained.